Often, the market passes judgment based on recent and easy narratives ("it was a passing fad," "the HEYDUDE acquisition was a disastrous mistake"), partially ignoring the business fundamentals. Currently, Crocs stock has corrected sharply and trades at a valuation that suggests a bleak future, almost one of disappearance. However, if we look beyond the noise, the numbers tell a very different story...
Value
CAPM, ¿SÍ O NO?
El Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) es, probablemente, el modelo más influyente —y cuestionado— de la historia de las finanzas modernas. Su fórmula, tan simple como potente, ha servido durante décadas como punto de partida para valorar activos, estimar el coste del equity y evaluar carteras. Pero hoy, más de 60 años después de su nacimiento, las preguntas se acumulan: ¿sirve todavía? ¿Debe seguir enseñándose en escuelas de negocios? ¿Es útil o solo elegante?
EBITDA…¿SÍ O NO?
Durante décadas, el EBITDA ha sido el atajo favorito de muchos analistas para estimar la rentabilidad operativa de una empresa. Pero su uso generalizado ha generado también graves distorsiones: ignora la inversión necesaria para sostener el negocio, puede inflar la percepción de liquidez, y es fácilmente manipulable...
ROC, ROIC AND ROE by DAMODARAN
La clave para entender la creación de valor en una empresa no está solo en medir cuánto gana, sino en cuánto gana en relación con lo que invierte y con el coste de esa inversión. Las métricas tradicionales como ROIC, ROE y ROC, aunque populares, deben ajustarse cuidadosamente para eliminar sesgos contables y reflejar fielmente la realidad económica.
Contrarians by Choice, Herds by Design
"Be a contrarian." It is the whispered mantra in trading rooms, financial forums, and among many investors who take pride in it. It sounds sophisticated, daring, and hints at the secret to outperforming the market. It evokes images of lone wolves bravely defying conventional wisdom to uncover hidden gems and achieve extraordinary returns. But is this contrarian ideal a true reflection of market reality? Or is it, instead, a more complex and paradoxical dance between individual conviction and collective influence? Every investment decision is simultaneously a contrarian act and an adherence to the herd. Let’s explore this seemingly contradictory truth.
QUALITY GROWTH INVESTING: DOES IT WORK?
Drawing on the principles outlined in Peter Seilern's Only the Best Will Do, it seems evident that quality growth investing represents a refined and resilient approach to wealth creation. By focusing on companies with sustainable competitive advantages, robust financial health, and consistent growth trajectories, investors can achieve superior returns while mitigating risks inherent in volatile markets. Quality growth investing has shown (at least in the last 5 years) that true investing success lies in consistently backing the best.
QUALITATIVE VALUATION – WHY THE TOP MANAGEMENT MATTERS MORE THAN YOU THINK
Are you relying solely on financial statements for company valuation? You might be missing a critical piece of the puzzle. While balance sheets and income statements provide essential data, they often overlook the profound impact of top management on a company's true worth. This quote by Peter Seilern, "A company is always as good and only as good as its top management," from Only the Best Will Do, isn't just a catchy phrase, It challenges us to look beyond the numbers and recognize that the quality of leadership is a critical determinant of a company's success and valuation.
Valuing Companies: Beyond DCF Models
💡 Why stick to one perspective when valuing a company? While DCF models provide crucial insights, they’re not the whole picture. This video unpacks the limitations of DCF and stresses the importance of a multi-faceted approach—one that accounts for both quantitative and qualitative factors. Understanding a company’s true value goes beyond numbers; it’s about seeing the … Sigue leyendo Valuing Companies: Beyond DCF Models
Understanding Market Biases: Navigating Investment Turbulence
Navigating the turbulent waters of investing? Beware the siren song of cognitive biases! Our minds play tricks on us, distorting reality and clouding our judgment in the financial markets. As the diagram shows, our perspective can swing wildly from pessimism to optimism, often missing the mark of true market reality. But fear not! Time is … Sigue leyendo Understanding Market Biases: Navigating Investment Turbulence
«Unlocking Hidden Value: When Market Myopia Meets Economic Reality»
This graph illustrates a potential opportunity for savvy investors. When a company's intrinsic growth lags behind the long-term average growth of its economic sector, we're looking at a classic setup for value creation. This gap between perception and potential sets the stage for a powerful reversion to the mean. As the company's true growth trajectory … Sigue leyendo «Unlocking Hidden Value: When Market Myopia Meets Economic Reality»
Irrational Investors 