Seven months ago, we published an analysis of Crocs (CROX) titled "Is the Ugly Shoe That Ugly?" The stock was trading at around $89, the market narrative was poisonous, and the numbers were screaming something different from what the consensus wanted to hear/believe. The forward P/E was around 7x, the FCF yield was a staggering 16-17%, and a Sum-of-the-Parts valuation that assigned zero value to HEYDUDE still produced a fair value of $127 per share. The implicit perpetuity growth baked into the stock price was -4%, which essentially meant the market was pricing a company in permanent decline. Seven months later, with the stock trading around $137, hitting a new 52-week high, the answer appears to have been the former. But that answer, paradoxically, is precisely the reason this follow-up article exists, because the same discipline that told us to look when nobody wanted to now tells us to be cautious when everyone is suddenly interested.
Análisis/Ideas
En esta apartado aparecerán análisis propios y ajenos, por fundamentales, análisis técnico, o ambos, acerca de valores concretos, carteras, mercados, sectores, etc. Piezas que nos ayuden a definir nuestra idea y procesos de inversión. Será un repositorio, que fundamentalmente pretende mostrar los procesos de inversión propios y los de otros. No son en ningún caso recomendaciones de inversión, y se muestran a título meramente informativo y educativo.
GOOG, AI Y LOS BUENOS RESULTADOS
Alphabet (GOOG) acaba de publicar unos ingresos de 109.900 millones de dólares en el primer trimestre de 2026, un 22% más interanual, y la acción reaccionó muy positivamente, con más de un 10% de revalorización en la semana. Los titulares anunciaban un incremento del 82% en el BPA hasta los $5,11. Sin duda, un trimestre fabuloso. Pero cuidado porque una parte sustancial de esta "sorpresa" no es lo que parece...
THE «BERKSHIRE OF SOFTWARE» IS AT A TURNING POINT?
The enterprise software landscape of 2026 is defined by a profound tension between the disruptive potential of generative artificial intelligence and the enduring resilience of mission-critical systems of record. At the epicenter of this conflict is Constellation Software Inc. (TSX: CSU), a Canadian-based holding company that has spent three decades refining a decentralized model of capital allocation that many now refer to as the "Berkshire of Software". As the organization navigates its first year under the leadership of President Mark Miller following the resignation of legendary founder Mark Leonard, the market is grappling with a fundamental question, Can a model built on the acquisition of thousands of small, niche software businesses survive an era where AI promises to commoditize code? Analysis of the firm’s operational trajectory, financial architecture, and recent strategic acquisitions suggests that the "Architecture of Permanence" is not only intact but is being fortified by the very technological shifts that skeptics feared would destroy it.
CROCS, IS THE UGLY SHOE THAT UGLY…?
Often, the market passes judgment based on recent and easy narratives ("it was a passing fad," "the HEYDUDE acquisition was a disastrous mistake"), partially ignoring the business fundamentals. Currently, Crocs stock has corrected sharply and trades at a valuation that suggests a bleak future, almost one of disappearance. However, if we look beyond the noise, the numbers tell a very different story...
Summer readings – authors worth to be read
Looking to read this summer and actually make it worthwhile? This isn't another "top 10 books to read" list. We're taking it a step further. This summer, don't just pick books. Pick minds. Choose authors whose thinking will challenge yours, reshape how you work, decide, invest, and make sense of the world.
CAPM, ¿SÍ O NO?
El Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) es, probablemente, el modelo más influyente —y cuestionado— de la historia de las finanzas modernas. Su fórmula, tan simple como potente, ha servido durante décadas como punto de partida para valorar activos, estimar el coste del equity y evaluar carteras. Pero hoy, más de 60 años después de su nacimiento, las preguntas se acumulan: ¿sirve todavía? ¿Debe seguir enseñándose en escuelas de negocios? ¿Es útil o solo elegante?
Understanding Market Biases: Navigating Investment Turbulence
Navigating the turbulent waters of investing? Beware the siren song of cognitive biases! Our minds play tricks on us, distorting reality and clouding our judgment in the financial markets. As the diagram shows, our perspective can swing wildly from pessimism to optimism, often missing the mark of true market reality. But fear not! Time is … Sigue leyendo Understanding Market Biases: Navigating Investment Turbulence
«Unlocking Hidden Value: When Market Myopia Meets Economic Reality»
This graph illustrates a potential opportunity for savvy investors. When a company's intrinsic growth lags behind the long-term average growth of its economic sector, we're looking at a classic setup for value creation. This gap between perception and potential sets the stage for a powerful reversion to the mean. As the company's true growth trajectory … Sigue leyendo «Unlocking Hidden Value: When Market Myopia Meets Economic Reality»
SKIN IN THE GAME? SÍ, PERO…¿CUÁL ES EL GAME DE LOS GESTORES?
En la gestión de fondos, no todo skin in the game es positivo (o al menos los efectos teóricos), y no todos los puestos tienen el mismo skin in the game. La problemática surge cuando una misma persona tiene que llevar a la vez dos o tres gorras, y por ello no es tanto si pones skin in the game, sino qué gorra priorizas (problema de agencia). Veamos un ejemplo...
El Value no ha muerto, pero ….
Si value es algo más que ratios, el peor comportamiento relativo es difícil de probar. Por otro lado, la búsqueda de valor no debe atribuirse a un sólo estilo de inversión, y en cualquier caso, conceptos value anteriormente inamovibles, deberán ser repensados para adaptarse al contexto actual y futuro.
Irrational Investors 