Why Even the Smartest People Make Predictable Mistakes…

junio 14, 2025junio 14, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología Behavioral Finance, Cognitive Biases, Decision Making, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment, LEADERSHIP, Psychology

Why do even the smartest people make predictable mistakes? Because the trap isn’t in the data — it’s in how we interpret it. Representativeness, availability, anchoring, overconfidence, illusion of control... These aren't flukes. They're systemic biases. Kahneman and Tversky called them out decades ago. Yet we keep falling for them — in investing, in business, in healthcare, in public policy.

ROC, ROIC AND ROE by DAMODARAN

mayo 24, 2025junio 18, 2025 Irrational Investors Inversiones, Research Académico, Valoraciones, Value Inversores y Gestores, Investment, Research, ROC, ROE, ROIC, Value

La clave para entender la creación de valor en una empresa no está solo en medir cuánto gana, sino en cuánto gana en relación con lo que invierte y con el coste de esa inversión. Las métricas tradicionales como ROIC, ROE y ROC, aunque populares, deben ajustarse cuidadosamente para eliminar sesgos contables y reflejar fielmente la realidad económica.

15 ideas about Risk (From against the gods)

febrero 7, 2025febrero 6, 2025 Irrational Investors Inversiones Cognitive Biases, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investment, Risk

"Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk" is a fascinating book about how humanity has learned to measure and manage risk, enabling advancements in knowledge, the economy, and society by transforming uncertainty into a calculated opportunity.

Contrarians by Choice, Herds by Design

febrero 1, 2025enero 31, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, Forecasting, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología, Valoraciones, Value Behavioral Finance, Cognitive Biases, Contrarian, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment, Value

"Be a contrarian." It is the whispered mantra in trading rooms, financial forums, and among many investors who take pride in it. It sounds sophisticated, daring, and hints at the secret to outperforming the market. It evokes images of lone wolves bravely defying conventional wisdom to uncover hidden gems and achieve extraordinary returns. But is this contrarian ideal a true reflection of market reality? Or is it, instead, a more complex and paradoxical dance between individual conviction and collective influence? Every investment decision is simultaneously a contrarian act and an adherence to the herd. Let’s explore this seemingly contradictory truth.

IS GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN WITH AI?

enero 28, 2025enero 28, 2025 Irrational Investors AI, Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología, Riesgo

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" – Warren Buffett's timeless quote is more than just investment advice; it’s a universal truth applicable to any major decision. Uncertainty, fueled by a lack of knowledge, often leads to unpredictable and potentially disastrous outcomes.

Speculation versus Investment: An Increasingly Blurred Frontier

enero 24, 2025enero 24, 2025 Irrational Investors Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Riesgo Cognitive Biases, Especulación, Fund Managers, Investing, Investment

Is the distinction between speculation and investment truly valid, or is it merely a theoretical construct that has been consolidated throughout the history of financial markets? This article examines how, in today’s environment, marked by technological transformations, structural market changes, and a growing understanding of investor psychology, these categories have progressively blurred.

QUALITY GROWTH INVESTING: DOES IT WORK?

enero 16, 2025enero 16, 2025 Irrational Investors Growth, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Valoraciones, Value Fund Managers, Growth, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment, Value

Drawing on the principles outlined in Peter Seilern's Only the Best Will Do, it seems evident that quality growth investing represents a refined and resilient approach to wealth creation. By focusing on companies with sustainable competitive advantages, robust financial health, and consistent growth trajectories, investors can achieve superior returns while mitigating risks inherent in volatile markets. Quality growth investing has shown (at least in the last 5 years) that true investing success lies in consistently backing the best.

QUALITATIVE VALUATION – WHY THE TOP MANAGEMENT MATTERS MORE THAN YOU THINK

enero 12, 2025enero 11, 2025 Irrational Investors CORPORATE CULTURE, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, LEADERSHIP, SOEs, Valoraciones, Value Fund Managers, HHRR, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, LEADERSHIP, RRHH, Valuations, Value

Are you relying solely on financial statements for company valuation? You might be missing a critical piece of the puzzle. While balance sheets and income statements provide essential data, they often overlook the profound impact of top management on a company's true worth. This quote by Peter Seilern, "A company is always as good and only as good as its top management," from Only the Best Will Do, isn't just a catchy phrase, It challenges us to look beyond the numbers and recognize that the quality of leadership is a critical determinant of a company's success and valuation.