El Teorema de Bayes, Munger y el comportamiento

noviembre 13, 2025noviembre 12, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, CORPORATE CULTURE, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores Behavior, CORPORATE CULTURE, Inversores y Gestores, Investment, LEADERSHIP

El Teorema de Bayes suele enseñarse (casi siempre) como una fórmula, pero en realidad puede entenderse como una filosofía de pensamiento. Según Bayes, toda creencia debería ser revisable y revisitada, y cada vez que aparece y nos llega nueva información, lo racional es ajustar nuestra posición y perspectiva. En otras palabras, pensar de forma bayesiana significa aceptar que la certeza es ...

LA NUEVA MENTE DEL MERCADO: CÓMO LA IA ESTÁ REVOLUCIONANDO LAS FINANZAS DEL COMPORTAMIENTO

septiembre 29, 2025septiembre 29, 2025 Irrational Investors AI, Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Valoraciones AI, Behavioral Finance, Cognitive Biases, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment

Artificial intelligence is a double-edged sword in the world of finance. It offers an incredible toolkit to diagnose and correct our most ingrained behavioral flaws, potentially making investors more successful. Yet it also introduces novel risks by becoming an actor in the market itself, complete with its own systematic machine biases and the frightening prospect of algorithmic herding. The line between human and machine decision-making in finance is blurring, creating a new market ecosystem defined by their interaction. The new market mind is here, and whether it leads to a more rational market or new forms of systemic fragility will depend entirely on the behavioral wisdom we embed in its code.

CORPORATE CULTURE- «…THE RIGHT GUYS IN THE RIGHT SEATS…»

agosto 5, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, CORPORATE CULTURE, Inversiones, LEADERSHIP, Vídeos CORPORATE CULTURE, LEADERSHIP, people, RRHH, team-building

Nick Saban gives us so many lessons about Corporate Culture in just one minute!

When an AI Outperforms 93% of Fund Managers!

junio 20, 2025junio 19, 2025 Irrational Investors AI, Asset Allocation, Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Valoraciones, Value AI, Cognitive Biases, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment

For decades, financial theory has rested on a central axiom: public information is free, symmetric, and quickly incorporated into prices. Under this premise, investors shouldn’t be able to generate sustained returns using data available to everyone. However, a recent study by Ed deHaan, Chanseok Lee, Miao Liu, and Suzie Noh (Stanford and Boston College, 2025) challenges this idea with a compelling experiment: an AI that, relying solely on public data, systematically improves the portfolios of thousands of real-world funds.

Why Even the Smartest People Make Predictable Mistakes…

junio 14, 2025junio 14, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología Behavioral Finance, Cognitive Biases, Decision Making, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment, LEADERSHIP, Psychology

Why do even the smartest people make predictable mistakes? Because the trap isn’t in the data — it’s in how we interpret it. Representativeness, availability, anchoring, overconfidence, illusion of control... These aren't flukes. They're systemic biases. Kahneman and Tversky called them out decades ago. Yet we keep falling for them — in investing, in business, in healthcare, in public policy.

Contrarians by Choice, Herds by Design

febrero 1, 2025enero 31, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, Forecasting, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología, Valoraciones, Value Behavioral Finance, Cognitive Biases, Contrarian, Fund Managers, Inversores y Gestores, Investing, Investment, Value

"Be a contrarian." It is the whispered mantra in trading rooms, financial forums, and among many investors who take pride in it. It sounds sophisticated, daring, and hints at the secret to outperforming the market. It evokes images of lone wolves bravely defying conventional wisdom to uncover hidden gems and achieve extraordinary returns. But is this contrarian ideal a true reflection of market reality? Or is it, instead, a more complex and paradoxical dance between individual conviction and collective influence? Every investment decision is simultaneously a contrarian act and an adherence to the herd. Let’s explore this seemingly contradictory truth.

IS GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN WITH AI?

enero 28, 2025enero 28, 2025 Irrational Investors AI, Behavior, Inversiones, Inversores y Gestores, Psicología, Riesgo

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" – Warren Buffett's timeless quote is more than just investment advice; it’s a universal truth applicable to any major decision. Uncertainty, fueled by a lack of knowledge, often leads to unpredictable and potentially disastrous outcomes.

WHY YOUR COMPANY NEEDS A «FREE» EXERCISE PROGRAM … YESTERDAY!!!

enero 7, 2025 Irrational Investors Behavior, CORPORATE CULTURE, Health, LEADERSHIP, productivity CORPORATE CULTURE, Health, HHRR, LEADERSHIP, productivity, RRHH

It’s that time again—2025 is already here, and “New Year, New Me” resolutions are popping up left and right. But what about the goals your company is setting for the new year? Let me throw out an idea: a free (subsidized), exercise program for your employees...