CROX: THE UGLY SHOE THAT TURNED OUT TO BE… NOT SO UGLY

Seven months ago, we published an analysis of Crocs (CROX) titled "Is the Ugly Shoe That Ugly?" The stock was trading at around $89, the market narrative was poisonous, and the numbers were screaming something different from what the consensus wanted to hear/believe. The forward P/E was around 7x, the FCF yield was a staggering 16-17%, and a Sum-of-the-Parts valuation that assigned zero value to HEYDUDE still produced a fair value of $127 per share. The implicit perpetuity growth baked into the stock price was -4%, which essentially meant the market was pricing a company in permanent decline. Seven months later, with the stock trading around $137, hitting a new 52-week high, the answer appears to have been the former. But that answer, paradoxically, is precisely the reason this follow-up article exists, because the same discipline that told us to look when nobody wanted to now tells us to be cautious when everyone is suddenly interested.